Life with Cito: A Blue Jay Story
Writing about Earl Weaver‘s coaching strategy made me reflect on a man that is now an afterthought in Toronto, Cito Gaston. Cito’s time with Jays has recently ended, in a managing capacity at least, ushering in the former Red Sox pitching coach, John Farrell,
as the Blue Jays 2011 manager. In my opinion, it was time for a change
as the Jays have been fruitlessly looking for managing talent ever
since Cito was replaced in 1997. They found a well respected man in John Farrell, and he seems up to the challenge.
Cito began in professional baseball playing 11 years (1967-1978) with the Braves, Pirates and Padres.
His playing career peaked when he was 26 years old and hit
.318/29HRs/.364OBP and was selected to the 1970 All Star team. When
you look over his playing stats, you
will see that Gaston was never able to produce like he did in that
year, and for a hitter labelled ‘strike-out prone,’ that quickly landed
Gaston in a part-time role off the bench.
In 1982, same that year I was born coincidently, Cito started as the Blue Jays hitting coach under former Jays managers Bobby Cox, and then Jimmy Williams. It would begin a long, ‘off-and-on‘
relationship (that may still be going on in some capacity). This
wasn’t the last time he’d be the hitting coach. Cito would return to
the position from 1999-2001, two years after he was let go as manager,
then he’d return again to manage from 2008-2010.
When Cito
broke into managing, the year was 1982. It was the tail-end of Weaver
and the Orioles’ reign over the A.L. East. Weaver’s “save every
precious out,” and “wait for the 3-run-homerun” strategy was still
dominant in the American League, that had only adopted the DH (designated hitter)
in 1973. Gaston was obviously influenced by this coaching strategy in
those early years. Although Gaston was not nearly as involved of a
manager as Weaver, rarely substituting hitters in the game and hardly
ever arguing with the umpire, Cito’s ‘basic coaching strategy,’ in the
game, was definitely influenced by the Weaverian era.
Cito took over as manager in the 1989 season and he would lead the Jays to
four ALCS appearances (1989, 1991, 1992, 1993) and two World Series in 1992 and 1993.
I was only 10-11 years old, but I will look back on those days as the
fondest memories of my life. Cito was new to the managing gig when
team exploded with talent in those years. The tremendous organizational praise starting with Team President Paul Beeston and General Manager Pat Gillick
(both considered among at what they do)
reached Cito with open arms as well, and deservedly so. The people of
Toronto, southern
Ontario and all over the nation of Blue Jay fans were sitting on a
high, and tasting sweet victory. Something that the Toronto Maple
Leafs had not enjoyed since the 60s, so it was long overdue. Cito was
able to deliver with a great collection of talent, and a top payroll at
the time. What he did for the team cannot be understated, but he had
all pieces in place to make it easier for him.
What
worked well was the fact that Gaston was the proto-typical ‘players
coach,’ which fit the Blue Jay teams of the early 90s. He was always
laid back, he’d rarely adjust the lineup and hardly ever substitute
guys, even in situations that called for it. His message was always
that he had to establish that trust in his players. “For every
ten times that a substitution worked, he’d show you ten times that it
didn’t,” he’d always say. Cito maintained to be a student of hitting.
He’d always let his hitters swing freely, but would preach that they ‘have a plan‘ established for every at-bat. ‘Have a plan’
became his ‘mantra’ in his comeback to Jays after an 11-year absence.
Cito would have one last ‘hurrah’ with the Jays from 2008-2010 after
leaving a failed and broken team in 1997. The Jays seemed revitalized
upon Cito’s return, still falling short of the playoffs, but able to gather a few respectable MLB season records.
It
was not all daisies, however, for Gaston with the Blue Jays. His
incredibly laid back attitude, and sometimes inconcievable decisions
left members of the team, the fans and media baffled on many
occasions. He accused respected members of the media of racism in
1997, and he also had the power to force media to face suspension for
questioning his on field tactics. Gaston was criticized by the media
and even his for having a lack communication. There was an apparent
‘mutiny’ reported in the Jays 2008 clubhouse, as players felt like they
were not being communicated with about their role on the team. The
glorious years of 1992 and 1993 would turn into a bitter, cold
and desolate place around Cito. Even though Cito had incredible early
success with the team, many baseball purists in the area could not
respect his coaching style.
If you are a ‘great student’
of the game, and like to strategize, crunch numbers and play matchups?
Gaston would be very tough to watch for you. He seemed to manage by
instinct, and at times, not manage at all. He would always maintain
that it is not what the fans, or the media can see that makes a good
coach. His strength was with the players. And it is hard to disagree
with that, especially considering the Jays offensive output the last
couple years, when nobody thought that they would do anything near to
what they did.
Cito will forever be a key figure in Blue
Jay history. In fact, he might never go away. ha ha. His body of
work with the team is most impressive, as not many managers can boost
two World Series rings. With any long marriage you have to accept, and
live with the other person’s faults. For all his faults, nothing can
replace the years that he contributed to in the early 90s.
It was a flawed marriage, but I’d challenge you to prove one that isn’t?
Even though I would have, I wouldn’t have had the Jays managed any differently. Cito this design is for you.
Epic Earl Weaver
The modern game of baseball owes a lot to how Earl Weaver managed the Orioles from the late 60s to the mid 80s. For example, Weaver was known for extensively using statistics to adapt his everyday lineup, something that has become a staple in the current game. Saying he ‘extensively used statistics’ is a large overstatement in the current context of sabermetrics, graphs and advanced scouting stats, but Weaver was definitely ahead of his
time in that respect.
What he is most known for is the ‘never waste any of your 27 outs’ and ‘wait for the 3-run homerun’ approach to managing. Weaver did not believe in small ball, he saw it as a pure waste. His style of coaching would have a large impact on the American League for years to come, becoming the standard by which most AL teams have been managed for a number of years. It worked. Only once in 17 seasons did the Orioles finish below .500 under Weaver.
There was actually a time, believe it or not, that the Kansas City Royals and the Baltimore Orioles were the class of the American League. At this time Weaver’s strategy was challenged by a fast and defensive minded Kansas City team that could run balls down in their large outfield. Weaver admired the Royals for this style of play, but he realized that his team was not built to play like that. His team relied players to merely get on base to compliment his sluggers such as Eddie Murray, Frank Robinson and Boog Powell. Weaver would conclude that every team needs to adapt their lineup to the ballpark in which they played. This idea is extremely prevalent in modern day baseball when look at teams like the 2010 champion San Francisco Giants on one end and the current New York Yankees on the other.
No Weaver post is complete without talking about his on field antics, of course. Weaver held the record for manager ejections with 97, until it was recently broken by Bobby Cox in 2007. It is safe the say that Weaver’s ejections were the most flamboyant in the game. He is a now YouTube sensation, in that respect. He once ripped apart an entire rule book in front of an umpire and forfeited a game in Toronto because he felt the Blue Jay bullpen tarp was unsafe for his left fielder.
As General Manager are gaining more power in terms of how a team is constructed and run. And the ‘wait for the 3-run homerun’ approach fading in popularity. I wonder if a manager like Weaver would still be able to succeed in the game today?
Regardless, the game owes a lot to Earl Weaver, so I made a design honoring Weaver. I tried to make it in similar fashion to the Madden 11 cover.
Reference:
Weaver On Strategy, Earl Weaver
Baseball Anecdotes, Daniel Orkent and Steve Wulf
Fate 56
Joe DiMaggio‘s consecutive hit streak of 56 games with a hit has stood since 1941. There are many that feel the record he set is unbeatable. The number #56 one of the most iconic numbers in baseball, along with 61, 73, and 755 it has been idolized and celebrated by baseball fans for decades. The record itself is as elusive as records come. To put it into perspective, when a player reaches a 30-game hit streak, widely considered a remarkable feat, he has to consider that he is barely more than half-way to DiMaggio.
Most people would give DiMaggio all the credit for the number 56, but it was actually a little-known Cleveland third baseman that firmly solidified that number into baseball history.
The day was July 17th, 1941 at Cleveland’s Municipal Stadium when DiMaggio’s streak would eventually come to an end. In the first inning DiMaggio hit a scorcher down the third base line only to be robbed by a man named Ken Keltner. Keltner had to backhand a ball down the line at third, one of the most difficult plays in the infield, then he make a strong, accurate throw get out the long, gazelle-like striding legs of DiMaggio.
Keltner made the play that easily would have been scored a hit for DiMaggio.
It can be argued that that number is just as much Keltner’s, as it is DiMaggio’s. The record is a different story, but the number ‘yes.’ ‘Joltin’ Joe would go even further, and hit for a 16-game streak after that July 17th date it ended. So? 56 + 16 + 1 …. that would make 73 both the consecutive hit record and Barry Bonds‘ single-season homerun record the same. I’m glad Keltner wouldn’t let fate make that happen.
He Called His Shot
If someone could pull off a ‘called shot’ in today’s game, I’d love to see it. What do you think? ‘Ruth‘s legendary ‘called shot’ is my favorite legend from baseball folklore. Though, I’m having a hard time thinking of a player that could actually pull it off in recent history? I don’t know?
Bautista? He has that intimidating presence?
In 1932, the Yankees were met by the Cubs in a competitive and heated World Series matchup. The Cubs had just fired Yankee manager Joe McCarthy two years prior. And the Cub organization was altogether given a bad wrap from the players as being a bunch of cheapskates. Not giving out bonuses and finding technicalities in player contracts, and such.
Ruth’s call came in the 5th inning of Game 3 in a 4-4 tie at Wrigley Field. The crowd was raucous, throwing lemons at Ruth throughout the game. A clear waste of fine produce, if you ask me? Really? Who throws lemons? They had it rough back then.
After a ball and a strike that ‘legend says’ Ruth took grinning … he made the call. Old footage of the moment shows that Ruth doesn’t emphatically point as much as the story commonly portrays. It’s somewhat of a little wave towards the vicinity of center field. Somewhat shy, and innocent if you look close. A few pitches later Ruth hit a low offspeed pitch to center field that is still considered the longest homerun ever hit in Wrigley Field.
Such a moment deserves to be immortalized.
Danger! Guerilla Warfare
As I watch Roy Halladay do what I always knew he was capable of doing, I’m reminded of the old identity the Jays had with ‘Doc’ as the star. In 2010, Jose Bautista changed all of that.
The Blue Jays, and more specifically the Rogers Centre, is now a scary place to play. Opposing pitchers are coming to another country, and they are being harrassed and assaulted by a lineup with deadly weapons. Entire pitching staffs are being held hostage by Blue Jay bats. The structure of the game is crumbling as we wreak devastation on MLB. Bautista is leading his rebellion army across baseball and (hopefully?!? arbitration?) into 2011.
Batmen
Na, Na, Na, Na, Na, Na … BLUE JAYS!!!
The story of the 2010 season has been that the Blue Jays lead the majors in team homeruns with 179. Second place is not even close at 155.
Despite the ‘homerun happy’ numbers, the team sits 9 games out of a playoff spot. I’m tuning in same ‘bat’ time (sometimes varies), same ‘bat’ channel (usually on Roger Sportsnet) to see if we can make up that 9 games from here on out.
He is Legend
No pitcher prepares, trains and works harder than Roy Halladay. His pre-game preparation and spring training regiment has become ‘a tale of legend’ among his peers. You know why
the movie ‘I am Legend’ with Will Smith flopped in the box office? Because it wasn’t about the life of Roy Halladay.
Halladay focuses on every hitter/team like a school exam, and he is a straight ‘A’ student. Some would call the Yankees and the Red Sox a hard test? Not for Halladay. ‘The Doc’ was 13-6 with a 2.59 ERA and a 0.99 WHIP against both teams while he was in the A.L. East.
No test is too difficult for Halladay. On a Saturday night in Florida, Roy was given the test of the Florida Marlins and scored perfect. With one out in the 8th inning I watched Halladay freeze a very good hitter, Dan Uggla, on a 2-seam sinking fastball that broke towards the outside corner of the plate. When I saw him make that pitch, I knew he had enough to be perfect. Sure enough, Ronny Paulino grounded a ball hit slowly enough in the hole that Phillies utility infielder, Juan Castro, could make a play on. The rest was history! A perfect history exam, if you will?
In all seriousness, does it get any better than Halladay? As if you didn’t know how good he is yet?
Who is the Man?
Every Jays fan immediately felt a gaping void in the team’s pitching rotation the minute Roy Halladay was traded from the Blue Jays to the Phillies. We all wondered who was going to step-up, thrown-down, lay it all on the line, lock and load, load and lock and be ‘the man’ in the rotation.
Right now, we have two pitchers vying to be ‘the man;’ Ricky Romero and Shaun Marcum. I’d compare them to wine sampling, ice cream parlours or Jamba/Booster juice? Jays fan always have their flavour of the month. Romero or Marcum? Apples and Oranges. Pumperknickel and French Stick. Beatles and Stones. Murphy and Murray. Justin and Kelly. Bowersow and DeWyse. Ti-Cats and that other team. Blue Jays and …. Apples and Oranges. You get a different answer for our ace depending on what Jays fan you talk to. Many prefer the smooth, classic taste of Romero and Marcum like a Merlot or Pinot Grigio. Some might even
like Brett Cecil as it stands currently, but you wouldn’t want to rely on a Rose or Zinfandel would you?!
Ricky Romero has burst on the scene with some devastating pitches and a lot of ‘rookie’ hype. He has been extroadinarily impressive. However, I see Shaun Marcum as the guy that ‘stealing the show’ right now. Marcum has the advantage over Romero in experience. He truly has excellent control, command and works an exceptional array of pitches keeping hitters off balance. Watching Marcum pitch this season has been a delight. This is his season to become ‘the man’ of the Jays staff. He is on the verge of a ‘breakout’ year, in my opinion. Free wine tasting tip: Shaun Marcum is Pinot Grigio. Marcum/Grigio is always a good choice.
VORPin’ it up Blue Jay Style
I don’t consider myself a ‘stat guy.’ I was never a strong math student. But I do like
to analyze baseball stats from time to time. The world of baseball
statistics has ‘blown up’ in the past 10 years with sabermetrics. Don’t
ask me to demonstrate what these stats are? I just find them interesting to look at and analyze. Two of the more trendy stats out
today are VORP, and a UZR/150 score.
UZR/150
is concocted out of graphs, charts and ‘god knows what’ to get an overall
rating of how many runs a player saved, or lost, above any average
fielder. The moniker stands for ‘ULTIMATE zone rate per 150 games
defensive games.’ First of all, I love the name. It compares some of my favorite
defensive baseball players to my favorite wrestlers, ‘The Ultimate
Warrior.’ Follow the link above if you actually want to know
what it is about:
For all those not familiar with VORP,
it means (Value Over Replacement Player). VORP is a number generated
in terms of runs that are contributed offensively over a general replacement at
a certain position. For example, Derek Jeter had a 65.0 VORP
and Hanely Ramirez had 75.0 VORP in 2009. This means that Jeter
contributed 65.0 more runs to his team over a general replacement shortstop in
2009, and Hanley contributed 75.0 over a general replacement. Not that
big of a difference for Jeter when you consider the ‘fantasy phenomena’ that is
Marlins shortstop, Hanley Ramirez. Jeter’s offensive production in 2009
(VORP doesn’t account for a player’s defense) was among the game’s
elite. Jeter’s VORP was really a testement to the immense contribution
he had on the Yankees 2009 A.L. East pennet team last season.
For me, it helps to visualize these so called ‘replacement players’ for each
position in order to assess VORP.
In the case of shortstop, the last two years Tigers shortstop, Adam Everett,
has had a 0.3 VORP. Epitomizing the stagnate offense of the shortstop
replacement – respected only for his glove. Another guy would be John
McDonald from the Blue Jays – with a -2.3 VORP. McDonald is even a little
worse than the 0.0 mark of the average replacement at shortstop. He is
still replacement worthy, but that is not saying a whole lot as the 0.0 number
value is made to characterize any ordinary player that can fill the role.
Lets breakdown the Blue Jays 2009 season related their
VORP and judge each player’s offensive value based on their
salary:
- Fred Lewis, LF, Blue
Jays, $455,000 – 2009 VORP 6.7
Anthopolous
acquired Fred Lewis this season taking a risk on a player that has
obvious athletic gifts. 2009 was a terrible season in San
Francisco for Lewis. He lost his job mid-season
and was sent to the minors. A 6.7 VORP in ’09 shows that Lewis very close
to replacement level in left field. The Blue Jays hope their hitting
coaches can help Lewis reach his full potential. At his current price, AA
should be commended because Lewis looks like a risk worth
taking.
- Aaron Hill, 2B, Blue
Jays, $4,000,000 – 2009 VORP 41.6
2009
was a ‘career season’ for Aaron Hill that saw him make the All-Star game
and win a Silver Slugger. His VORP shows that 2009 put him well above
replacement level. He is emblematic of the modern slugging 2nd
baseman. Hill is a free swinger that is criticized for not getting on
base enough. He is our player with the most value in a stage of rebuilding,
so trading Hill has been thrown out there. Personally, I like Hill’s
swing and approach at the plate. It is overly-aggressive but I don’t see
any indications of that hindering his ability. At this point, I’d hold
onto Hill, as he fits right in with the current mold of offensive producing 2nd
basemen.
- Adam Lind, DH, Blue
Jays, $550,000 – VORP 44.7
Adam
Lind also had a ‘career year’ in 2009. The Jays locked him into a
long-term contract for the foreseeable future before 2009 began. This was
an astute decision, in my opinion. Lind performed on the level of some of
the best #3 and #4′s hitters in the game last year. It was a good
decision to keep Lind in the Jays future. We are getting great value out
him on a 4-year 18 million dollar contract with options for even more
years.
- Vernon
Wells, CF, Blue Jays, $15,687,000 – VORP 15.4
As
if having a VORP at 15.4 wasn’t bad enough, Vernon Wells posted a -15
UZR score ranking runs gained/or lost on defense. Defensively, Wells was
scored among the worst centerfielders in the league last season. When you
deduce the defensive scores from the VORP, you get a replacement level
player making seven figures. 2009 was a horror story. It got
down right ugly for Vernon Wells. At times, I couldn’t watch. It
would give me nightmares. However, 2010 is beautiful!!! Wells is
hitting at a very high level, and actually earning his contract!!! The
nightmares are gone. 15MIL is a huge commitment to any player. It
could be argued that no player deserves that amount. Wells streakiness,
injury prone seasons and age will definitely make him a contract that the Jays
will part with or trade at some point. Right now, Wells is looking much
more athletic in the field and very savvy at the plate. What a difference
a year makes?
- Lyle
Overbay, 1B,
Blue Jays, $7,950,000 – VORP 18.4
Lyle
Overbay is hard to gage
because he is a player that saves runs on defense, having a UZR/150 score of
plus 6. His VORP is slightly above replacement level, but at a position
where the offensive output at the replacement level is the highest.
Overbay is a contributor, but the raw stats like AVG., doubles and RBI’s have
declined. Overbay will earn 8 million this season and the Jays will
likely look to Brett Wallace (a centerpiece in the Roy Halladay trade) to fill
1st base in the future. I wouldn’t be too patient with
Wallace. If the Jays get in contention in the next few seasons, I’d chase
after a guy with some proven production.
- Edwin Encarnacion, 3B,
Blue Jays, $5,175,000 – VORP 9.6
Edwin
Encarnacion played his best year at the Great American Smallpark in Cincinnati.
He had a couple years with great offensive production, amid horrible defensive
skills. He was acquired with a number of prospects for Scott Rolen last
season. The Jays picked up Encarnacion’s hefty contract. A very low
VORP compounded by injuries and terrible defensive skills puts Encarnacion at
replacement level in the 2009 season. Nobody is expecting much from
Encarnacion, so there is room for him to prove himself with the
organization. If the Jays aren’t drafting, looking or thinking of
establishing 3rd base help now, they are not doing their job.
- Alex Gonzalez, SS, Blue
Jays, $2,750,000 – VORP 5.8
The
injury riddled 2009 season for Alex Gonzalez in Boston
was probably a legitimate gripe. Gonzalez has burst on the scene in
2010. He is proving himself much more than a replacement level SS,
hitting .277, with 7 HR’s and 19 RBI’s thus far. The Jays only saw
Gonzalez as a stopgap option, so they signed him to only one year. He may
for a larger, longer contract next season while the Jays wait on young top
Cuban prospect Adeiny Hechevarria to develop in the minors. I’d give
Gonzalez another 2 years if he keeps playing like this?
- John Buck, C, Blue Jays,
$2,000,000 – VORP 7.4
Another
‘stopgap’ for the Jays was John Buck, although he is a player that is
not playing well above his head right now. The Jays signed him for one
year while they develop some catcher talent in the minors (i.e. J.P. Arrencibia
and Travis D’Arnaud). The depth of talent at the catcher position is not
that significant. I wouldn’t be worried about this position. Buck
provides some pop in his bat while playing near replacement level. I
don’t think we will get much more out of him. The best that the Jays
could do is draft, and try to develop their young catchers into a rare case of
Brian McCann or Joe Mauer. If this takes longer than expected? Buck
might get another one-year contract with the team?
- Travis Snider, RF, Blue
Jays, $405,800 – VORP 6.5
Travis
Snider is a case of a guy that crushes the minor leagues, but has not
nearly translated that into the majors. The near replacement level VORP
indicated a lack of playing time last season, and some relative struggles for
Snider. The Jays should be patient with Snider, as he is still very young
and could be an emerging star that we could get very good value out of.
It depends how well the Jays do, if Snider tests their patience level. I
might upgrade this position if the Jays turn into buyers at some point, and let
Snider take more time in the minors. Just being here at this age, 22,
Snider is well above the curve.
Jose
Bautista, Blue Jays, Utility
Last
season Jose Bautista mainly played a utility role with the Jays.
This season he has moved around positions on a more permanant basis.
Edwin Encarnacion’s recent injury has Bautista currently filling in as the Jays
starting third baseman. Before the arrival of Fred Lewis, Bautista was
rotated around the corner outfield position. Regardless of where Bautista
ends up playing, he has proven to be a very useful acquisition – providing some
extra base pop in the order, hitting 6 HR’s with 20 RBI’s this early in the
season. Upon the return of Edwin Encarnacion, he may relegate both Edwin
and Fred Lewis to a utility role.
Conclusion
Looking
back on last season, the Jays only had 2 players here that produced significant
VORP. They need to raise the depth of production in different
ways to help a very young, inexperienced, but inexpensive pitching staff.
That is the only way we could compete with likes of the Yankees, Red Sox and
Rays.
2010
How
many guys have been stepping it up this year?
This
year has been very pleasing to those looking for improvement in the Blue Jay
lineup from last season. The Blue Jays lead the entire league in
homeruns! I would not have expected that. Alex Gonzalez, Vernon
Wells and Jose Bautista look on pace to have breakthrough seasons and increase
their VORP. If Snider, Overbay, Lewis and Buck can make solid
contributions to the lineup, then the overall output in VORP will be much, much
better than last season. Nobody expected this kind of the production from
the Jays so far, it has me giddy, happy and definably over-joyed! We are
VORPin it up, and slugging with the ‘big boys’ in the A.L. East.
The Overbay Saga: Black or Red?
The ‘L’ word is contentious issue among Blue Jay fans. Blue Jay first baseman, Lyle Overbay, was a player highly scrutinized in Toronto well before this season. Now, Overbay is off to a horrid start hitting .127 AVG, with 0 HR’s and only 4 RBI’s. If you go to some of the daily Blue Jay blogs you will find an ‘all out war’ going on between fans with different opinions on Overbay‘s value. Who knew baseball could resemble war? Seems like the furthest thing from war to me? For Jay fans, Lyle Overbay is the Gaza Strip.
In short, the debate stems from Overbay’s ability to play great defense and contribute an above average .OBP (on base percentage) – stats that go relatively unnoticed by casual fans that put high expectations on a first basemen in the catergories of HRs, RBIs and AVG. Overbay’s contribution, or lack there of, is the main dispute. Many Jays fan want him out of the lineup, where some believe him to be a key contributor getting on base and playing stellar defense.
I can’t think of a Blue Jay that has been more disputed, criticized and argued more than Lyle Overbay. If you listen to local sports talk radio after Jay games, you will hear a guy named Mike Wilner defend Lyle Overbay on a religious basis. The day Overbay moves on, Wilner will likely feel an empty void in his life. He has preached the Gospel of Overbay for so many years that Lyle must possess some kind of omnipotence in his mind. I enjoy Wilner on the radio, so I hope he doesn’t have a nervous breakdown when Overbay is gone.
Any baseball player, as we learned from the book/movie in pre-production starring Brad Pitt and Jonah Hill ‘Moneyball,’ players can be seen as financial commodities. With Overbay it has been hard to tell if we were in the black or the red? It is hard to compare him to other first basemen because he not like the others. Overbay begun his contract with the Jays in fine fashion, but is now ending it in with a less-than-mediocre performance. Are the Jays in the black or the red with Overbay? Answer that question, but be prepared for war!
The Future of Lyle Overbay
In all likelihood, Lyle looks take a pay cut upon receiving a new
free agent contract. Making 7.95 million for the 2010 season, Overbay
has not lived up to the high expectations placed upon following the
first year of his contract in 2006. For that year, Overbay hit for a
.312 average, had 22 homeruns, drove in close to 100 RBI’s, had .OBP of
.372 and knocked his signature 46 doubles. However, for the next 3
years of his current 5-year-contract, Overbay’s homerun numbers dipped
into the teens, his RBI’s fell into the 60′s and those signature
doubles became merely average falling to the low-to-mid 30′s.
When Overbay was with Milwaukee, there was a year he hit an
astonishing 56 doubles in a season. This season led to a lucrative
contract with the Blue Jays; however, throughout the course of that
contract it became apparent those days were over.
Considering the numbers previously mentioned for past three years.
One wonders how Overbay was even able to survive at first base for the
in the A.L. East? He plays in a division where Mark Teixeira, Jason
Giambi, Kevin Youkilus, David Ortiz, Carlos Pena and Aubrey Huff have
consistently put up ‘bigtime’ production numbers at the first base
position for their respective teams.
In the past three years Overbay’s production has dropped off. This is
usually an alarming fact for a first baseman. However, it is not as
grim as those numbers may suggest. Overbay is consistent contributor
defensively at first base. He is one of the best. Also, throughout
those years Overbay has maintained the same high .OBP (On Base
Percentage) that he had in his ‘breakthrough’ years. More and more,
teams are desiring players with high .OBPs. So, Overbay’s value has not completely
fallen off the map. I’d say that his value on the open market would be 2-3
million per year and only he’d get, at most, 3 years. Good, but a great
decline from the 7.95 million that he will make in 2010.
Overbay will be an intriguing player to look at during this upcoming
free agency because he is unique from other first basemen. How many
first basemen do you see that are purely solid .OBP guys? Don’t you
have be able to ‘mash’ to play first base? Does any team really want a
first baseman that is just good at getting on base and playing defense?
Overbay’s Future
Jays
It seems that Lyle Overbay will not be in the Blue Jays plans for
2011. The Jays have traded for top first base prospect, Brett Wallace,
and they will likely work him into the position – possibly as early as
this season. The Jays have also been incrementally reducing payroll
while allotting most of their assets into scouting and player
development.
The Possible Frontrunners
A’s
Having a high .OBP, and contributing on defense, Overbay would ideally
fit into Oakland General Manager Billy Beane’s ‘Moneyball’ philosophy.
Taking a sharp pay cut, Beane might want to exploit Overbay before he
passes the age of 35. At which point, Beane would hope that Overbay
increases his trade-market value for available prospects. Too many
obstacles abound in considering Overbay being signed by Oakland,
though. Top prospect Chris C. Carter might need to be held in the
minors a bit longer and Oakland’s experiment with AAA ‘mashers’ Jake Fox and Daric Barton
will need to fail. I’d only consider the A’s a secondary option for
Overbay in consideration of these factors.
Rays
Considering where a free agent might sign it is necessary to look at
primarily look at two things in terms of ‘team needs.’ One, what free
agents will the team possibly lose? And what players might be coming up
through the team’s system? The Tampa Bay Rays will face a dilemma with
both Carl Crawford and Carlos Pena‘s contracts coming up for renewal in
2011. If Tampa commits to signing Crawford for ‘big money,’ then Pena
will likely be out on the market. The Rays currently have an
interesting 19-year-old first baseman in there system, 5th round-pick
Jeff Malm, but he would be at least 3 years away from the major
leagues. Overbay would be an effective, cheap and solid ‘stopgap’
option for Rays that can add depth and defense. Being a small-market
team, I can see the going after Overbay, especially if the Rays choose
to commit to Crawford instead of Pena.
Mets
The Mets are team in need of first base help. They have a converted
outfielder playing the position now, and their system does not look
bright in the area of first basemen. If Daniel Murphy and prospect Ike
Davis do not contribute effectively, the Mets will need help. Overbay
would fill a void for them, and with the amount money they’ve spent
recently on Bay, Perez, K-Rod and Santana they might go with him as an
affordable option if they are not in sweepstakes to acquire a player
like Carlos Pena.
Mariners (my pick!)
Lyle Overbay is a product of the State of Washington. In the past, he
has been rumoured to be headed back to his home state via a trade to
the Mariners. He has been quoted, saying that he would like to play
there. With Ken Griffey Jr. edging on retirement, the M’s might want to
move first baseman Casey Kochman over to DH for 2011, making room for
top 1B/OF prospect Dustin Ackley (depending on his progression), or a
‘stopgap’ option like free agent Lyle Overbay to fill in until Ackley
is ready. Having first base solidified on an exciting M’s team might be
desirable? The chance of Overbay playing for the M’s improves even
greater if Kotchman shows the same downturn in his statistics from last
season. Overbay could be considered in a deadline trade to the
‘predictably contending Mariners’ if Kochman’s stats continue to
decline. The Jays will likely be in the cellar of the A.L. East again,
and they will be looking for prospects to keep building their team. A
deadline trade to the M’s makes the signing of Overbay even more
likely. In any case, they will be at least rumored in
signing Overbay next offseason, in my opinion.
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